Who is going to win the election? The GDP knows, the Stock Market knows and the Shadow knows

 As I wrote about 4 years there is a formula with the GDP numbers that correspond with Presidential Election outcomes. The Formula is:

If the GDP rises up from the third year to the fourth  year of an administration, the party in power stays in power.

If the GDP goes down from the 3rd year to the 4th year or if the 3rd or 4th year of the administration produces a negative calendar year GDP then the party in power gets kicked out of office.         This formula has worked about 85% of the time since 1928,

Currently the GDP stands at 2.3%  (thru June) it was 2.5% in 2023

There is a stock market formula. If the market is higher at the end of October than it was at the beginning of August then the party on power stays in power and if the stock market drops then the party in power gets kicked out of office. I have heard this formula works 90% of the time in the last 100 years

For example in 2020 on July 30 S&P 500 stood at 3,271 points. And on Oct 14, it stood at S&P 500 3,488 points. However the market dropped and it stood at 3,269 at the end of October. The party in power lost

At the end of July 2024, S&P 500 stood at 5537 points - today it is at 5853. 

The 3rd quarter GDP numbers will come out soon